Is an Elo Rating of 3000 Possible? (A Trend Analysis)
An elo rating of 3000 is possible. Magnus Carlsen already achieved a rating of 2986 in blitz, so it is not entirely impossible. The 3000 elo barrier will most likely be broken in blitz rather than in rapid or classical. Magnus and Hikaru are contenders to achieve the 3000 elo rating on blitz.
We have seen some crazy elo spikes over the course of years, some people are able to break the 2800 barrier or even the 2900 one in faster time controls.
But what about the rating of 3000? an elo so high that some people think it can only be achieved by modern chess computers.
Gaining an elo of 3000 seems like a monstruos achievement that is not possible for grandmasters of today.
However, we need to understand that the rating inflation has been so high over the years. I will discuss everything here. Without further ado, let’s get started.
What is an elo rating?
The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in zero-sum games such as chess. It is named after its creator Arpad Elo, a Hungarian-American physics professor.
In simplier terms the elo rating system for chess works like this: you gain a certain amount of points when you win, and you lose points when you lose. You would be given a starting elo point and work from there.
The overall value you have at the end of it is the elo rating. The addition to subtraction ratio will depend in the rating of the opponent.
The most prestigious chess organization is fide. Reaching 3000 elo in fide seems impossible (maybe?).
An elo rating of 3000 is achievable in the next 30+ years
The 3000 elo mark seems to be an inconceivable mark that humans cannot ever accomplish, or as a lot of people think. This is definitely wrong, people have been underestimating the power of improvement given by modern technology.
An elo rating of 3000 is definitely possible, however it is so difficult that we probably wouldn’t see it being achieved for the next 20-30 years.
It is hard to pinpoint which year will the 3000 elo mark be finally broken, but it would be for a long time.
We have to remember that the highest blitz rating is already at 2986 achieved by one of the greatest players Magnus Carlsen, beating the record will take some time but is definitely possible in the realm of the blitz.
Blitz after all has a huge room for rating growth since the games are played at a much faster pace, the wins can be acquired at a faster rate given that the player can perform. I suspect that the 3000 elo mark will be broken in blitz first than anything else.
However if we are talking about the rapid and classical time format the story is quite different, the highest rating we have ever come is only at 2800+.
It will take a very long time in order to break this benchmark, but I have a reason to believe that we will eventually accomplish this feature.
Is Magnus Carlsen the only one likely to cross over the 3000 elo mark?
If we are talking about classical chess then Magnus Carlsen is definitely the man right now. He is currently the holder of the highest classical rating ever, although he might even break that in the near future.
If you are going to ask me though classical is probably hopeless for the 3000 elo rating mark for now, a more reasonable one is 2900. If Magnus find the fountain of youth and remain in his prime forever then he might do this in classical.
As far as I know he is not interested in getting 3000 elo in blitz anytime soon. I think that someone will reach the 3000 elo mark in blitz but it will be a new player.
My best guess is Alireza Firouzja or Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa. But it could be someone the is not in the elite scene yet.
Are there 3000 rated blitz players on chess.com?
There are many who have crossed the 3000 threshold on chess.com. Players like Hikaru Nakamura, Nihal Sarin, Levon Aronian, and Daniel Naroditsky have all been 3000+ rated on chess.com at least once.
In fact it is so common that more often than not, as you are reading this, the top 10 blitz players on chess.com are all 3000+ rated. Online chess is different I know, but you couldn’t overlook the fact that it is achievable.
Well at least in conditions where players can play quickly and inflate their rating up.
An elo of 3000 is achievable since human ratings have a bigger margin
First let’s talk about the difference between elo of human players and elo of chess computers. I think this discussion is necessary in order to answer this question.
Some people think that the 3000 elo mark is insurmountable because that is around the rating some strong chess computers are at today.
If grandmasters can’t beat them then there’s no way they can achieve that right? Wrong, elo for chess computers are computed differently than for players.
I am talking about the wider rating margin that can be acquired in human games since there are more human players, a chess computer’s elo is computed differently.
To make the long story short, a chess computer’s elo is computed by performance, a human player’s elo on the other hand is computed by results and experience. In other words, they are not really the same.
I am primarily talking about the rating pool, the more players there are in the chess community the higher likelihood that the 3000 elo mark will be broken. After all, if there are more players to “steal” ratings from the higher the peak ratings would be.
Over time players in the chess community will increase in numbers, this means that the new players will feed more rating points for competitors higher in the food “rating” chain.
I believe that eventually, this will cause a player to achieve 3000 elo over the course of 30+ years.
Players of the past, inflation of chess ratings, and 3000 elo
This brought me to the next point, which is the inflation of chess ratings. We have consistently seen in the data that chess ratings in general have grown higher over the decades, this might be for different reasons but the trend is upward.
We have to remember that the 2900 elo mark seemed insurmountable in the years of Karpov, now it is pretty much achievable in the blitz and rapid category (and Magnus almost made it in classical!).
Over the years not only has the margin to the rating pool grown higher but the skill level of the competitors as well, primarily because of chess engines.
People can now memorize and win chess games from preparation alone, this has caused a trend where players who excelled in preparing get all the “rating juice”. This is why the top players have ratings that look so inconceivable before.
The chess engines (plus improvements in opening repertoire) have set the bar higher than it was ever before, this means that the top 20% who can capitalize receives more than what they could have years ago.
I think that the rising popularity of chess will give more opportunities for someone to reach 3000 elo. There is already a lot of money to be had for being a super grandmaster today. This will provide enough incentive for the new generation to improve their game.
The ascension of skill level is still happening, eventually the 3000 rating mark will be broken as new improvements emerge.
The 3000 elo mark is achievable because of modern improvements
I think that we will see an elo rating of 3000 eventually. Chess players are just getting more adept, they have more resources at their disposal in these modern times.
Now I do agree that this is optimistic of me to assume that there wouldn’t be any diminishing returns, it might be that the rating boost we experience now will slowly decline over the years.
As we fully utilize the “low-hanging fruits” of the chess engine era, it might be that our rating pool will start to stagnate and no longer ascend higher. However I do not believe that this is the case since computers are getting stronger as well.
Even in the modern times many improvements regarding the game are still happening, maybe it’s an opening repertoire or a new chess computer that will bring innovative ideas. As the players become better the 3000 elo mark will come closer than ever.
Even Stockfish gets improvement every year (or every other year) to compete with other top chess engines like Komodo and Houdini.
This just proves that there is still more to improve when it comes to the chess engine’s technology and they can still contribute something new to the game.
And we must not forget that the almighty Alphazero is still sleeping in the drawer waiting for someone to unleash its full potential. I really think that there are still new improvements to the game in the next 30+ years, this will help in the 3000 elo conquest.
An elo rating of 3000 is an incredible accomplishment that we probably wouldn’t see for the next 30 (or so) years, however I am confident that the rating inflation will eventually catch up and grant us this trophy. Eventually someone would be able to benefit from the rating inflation and achieve this.
There are so many improvements left to be made in order to boost a modern player’s skill set (new engines being made, lines being modified, Alphazero awakening, etc.). Only time will tell if this is true, thank you for reading.